Not a few of the economic and political problems the Filipino people are facing today were due in large part to the many laws that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, as a senator, authored or helped push. It should be interesting to see how she could deliver on her promise of prosperity and "new politics."

BY SANDRA NICOLAS

Filipinos have every right to hope that the removal of President Joseph Estrada from power will mean an improvement in their lives. Estrada's rapacious brand of governance really did not leave much room for the people's interests. And was not the anti-Estrada movement also a reaction to the utter hypocrisy of his claims to be "para sa mahirap (for the poor)"?

That the rise to power of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is reason to expect that this hope will be fulfilled is another matter.

Arroyo moves to Malacañang at a time when the economy is in an all-too customary crisis. (See related story.) It is a crisis that she both inherits and, perhaps more significantly, had a hand in creating.

She also has the dubious distinction of being the first President to take the highest position in the land without a clear electoral mandate. A popular uprising brought her to power but the nameless and faceless millions who brought her there are unfortunately less adept at jockeying for a role in governance than the handful of political players around her.

Thus, while the ouster of Estrada is an important milestone, it does not follow that the ascension of Arroyo is the dawn of a new era of prosperity. Indeed there are signs that should give people pause, if not cause for vigilance.

55 Steps To Globalization

Arroyo was hailed as the Senate's in-house economist during her stint there from 1992 to 1998. This is something she herself proudly proclaims. Her public-relations team makes much of 55 socio-economic laws she authored or co-authored that "constitute the core of the economic program of President Fidel Ramos -- laws that have brought our country to the status of Asia's next tiger."

But what, in truth, was wrought?

The years of the Ramos presidency (1992-98) saw the far-reaching implementation of liberalization, privatization and deregulation policies. The stalled import-liberalization program of the Aquino administration was revived with even higher targets for tariff cuts at an accelerated pace.

Measure after measure was taken to liberalize foreign investments, allowing up to 100% foreign ownership in all but a few sectors and complete freedom to repatriate capital. Foreign exchange controls, which safeguarded China and India from the global economic crisis and which Malaysia has adopted anew, were dropped.

The banking, insurance, telecommunications, airline, water transport, and mining industries were liberalized. The oil industry was deregulated. Water utilities and other government assets were privatized, momentarily easing pressure on the public deficit but at the cost of foregone revenues.

Agriculture was geared toward the high-value cash crops demanded by global markets and away from food crops for domestic consumption. Public responsibility for essential road and power infrastructure was renounced via private sector-based schemes such as build-operate-transfer (BOT).

Confidently wielding the dogma of neo-liberal economics, Arroyo played a key role in all of this.

As the Senate economist, she was at the forefront of legislative efforts to push the country into this thing called free market. Among the 55 pieces of legislation she worked on were laws on Export Development, Further Liberalizing Foreign Investments, Liberalizing Banking, Creating the Philippine Economic Zone Authority, and Promotion of High-Value Crops.

Outside the legislature, Arroyo was a vocal advocate of globalization, active in convincing other government officials to agree to it, as well as in promoting it to the public.

No Tiger

Yet after all this, has the country really been brought to "the status of Asia's next tiger"?

On the contrary, the new President takes charge of an economy that is reeling from the effects of unrestrained globalization. Economic growth is low and unstable. Poverty and unemployment are unambiguously on the rise, while social services disappear. The exchange rate has dropped to historic lows. The entire economy is overly sensitized to the whims of global financial capital.

A fledgling domestic industry is being reduced to pockets of low value-added assembly-type manufacturing. With industry unable to provide jobs, the export of labor grows even larger. Domestic agriculture is increasingly unable to provide food for a growing population, as agricultural lands get converted and as staple crops such as rice and corn give way to high-value crops for export like asparagus. Agrarian reform that would benefit millions of peasants remains a distant hope.

The challenge for Arroyo is a pro-people economic management that places the interest of the broad majority first. This is crucial because the globalization she is so fond of equates corporate private interests with the public good.

If she opts to continue with such policies in the guise of economic "reform," the people will be the big losers. All the "safety nets" she can come up with will be nothing but window dressing and won't make the least bit real difference.

Yet key positions in her Cabinet have so far been given to believers in untrammeled globalization: Alberto Romulo for finance, Mar Roxas for the trade and industry portfolio, Emilia Boncodin for budget and management, and Dante Canlas to head the National Economic and Development Authority.

Motley Crew Of Vested Interests

Arroyo, a halting and hesitating leader of the anti-Estrada opposition, became President riding on a democratic upsurge. The formidable array of forces was united to overthrow Estrada regardless of their divergent, perhaps even conflicting, basic interests. Will she be able then to take the side of the poor majority over the interests of the elite, where she also belongs?

Different political forces composed the broad anti-Estrada front. Even at a glance they are a motley group: the Cory Aquino-Cardinal Sin forces, the national democratic forces (NDs), social democrats (SDs) and popular democrats (popdems), conservative trade unions, anti-Estrada factions of traditional political parties and groups of politicians out of power, conservative business groups, anti-Estrada military and police officials and personnel, and former rebel soldiers.

The President is aware of her debt to these groups and the people they represent. Yet notwithstanding her paeans to "new politics," she seems to have decided in favor of the traditional elite power blocs.

Her projection of a country that is starting with a new government is deceiving. There is little indication that Arroyo will sweep away a system that is rooted in patronage politics.

It has only been a few days since she took power but her appointments so far are already criticized as based on political and personal affinity rather than on competence and integrity. The bloc associated with former president Fidel Ramos, consisting of a substantial part of Lakaas-NUCD and members of the military hierarchy, has been identified as a big winner. Such appointments tend to confirm the return to politics-as-usual.

Granted a handful of positions have been given to representatives of "civil society," presumably to give the impression of a desire for pro-people governance. But these are exceptions and the overall face of government bears a striking similarity to the traditional politics of previous administrations.

It also uncertain whether Arroyo has the skills in command, compromise and manipulation so necessary for managing the political and economic power blocs that confront the presidency. Indeed, to say that she has untested skills in political leadership would be putting it mildly.

Worst, Arroyo has been unable to articulate any vision of people-oriented governance for the country. This is a first requirement aside from the vast political commitment and resources needed. Its absence is yet another glaring sign that, in all likelihood, the machinery of government will be taken over by the customary play of traditional politics.

After the giddy days of People Power 2, most have settled back into their daily struggle of making a living. At the back of everyone's heads must be the unstated wish, if not the expectation, that they and their children will finally be justly rewarded for their efforts. Surely the family will have the health, education and livelihood sufficient for decent living, sooner if not later.

While Arroyo should certainly be judged over the three years that she has, it isn't prudent to assume that she has fallen from the heavens and starts with a clean slate. Helping the poor majority will require real structural changes in both the economy and the body politic. Though pleasant surprises would be welcome, her background and the signs so far do not indicate any. If anything, they are not encouraging. #