Bu-lat-lat (boo-lat-lat) verb: to search, probe, investigate, inquire; to unearth facts Volume 3, Number 41 November 16 - 22, 2003 Quezon City, Philippines |
British
Group Puts Iraq Casualty Toll at 21,700 to 55,000 By
Robert Schlesinger WASHINGTON
-- A British health group that opposed the war in Iraq released a report
yesterday estimating that total casualties from the war could range from 21,700
to 55,000, though they acknowledged that their calculations were hampered by a
lack of verifiable data. Using
a combination of public record estimates and statistical extrapolation, Medact,
the British affiliate of the nonprofit International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War, released its report as an attempt to assess the
ongoing "health and environmental costs" of the war. Although the
Pentagon regularly produces detailed information about US troops wounded or
killed, military officials have largely refused to quantify Iraqi civilian and
military casualties. But critics of the war in Iraq have said that its effects
cannot be accurately judged without that number. "The
most important thing that comes out of it is that the data are not
available," said Dr. Victor W. Sidel, a past president of International
Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and an adviser to the study.
"If you want other organizations to help [with the reconstruction of Iraq],
you've got to provide the data on what the needs are, and it's virtually
impossible to get the data out of the occupying powers." The
Boston-based Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and its affiliates --
Medact in the United Kingdom and Physicians for Social Responsibility in the US,
as well as groups in other countries -- opposed the Iraq war. The
report acknowledged the problems inherent in trying to put a solid number on
those killed. "The
difficulties in making a count are obvious -- death certification ceases, and
bodies are blown to pieces, buried under rubble, burned beyond recognition or
buried quickly, in accordance with Islamic custom," the report said.
"Victors in modern wars may underestimate the number of dead and the
vanquished overestimate them, so truth also becomes a casualty." Using
figures culled from the website IraqBodyCount.com, the study pegged the number
of civilian deaths directly attributable to the war at between 7,757 and 9,565
as of Oct. 20. (As of yesterday, the site had updated its range to between 7,840
and 9,668.) The IraqBodyCount.com figures are derived from thousands of media
reports from Iraq. The
Medact study places Iraqi military casualties at somewhere between 13,500 and
45,000. "This
is based on extrapolation from death rates of between 3 to 10 percent found in
the units around Baghdad, although it is believed the overall casualty rate may
lie closer to the lower figure," the report said. Estimating
nonlethal wounds for civilians or combatants is even more problematic. The
report cited an assessment by the website suggesting that 20,000 civilians may
have suffered injuries by July, though the Medact report noted that
"reliable numbers of civilians injured during conflict are difficult to
obtain." On
the combatant side, the report said "there are no reliable figures, but the
number of wounded is generally calculated as three times the number of deaths,
which gives a range of 40,500 to 135,000." "It's
guesswork, but it can be informed guesswork," said Michael O'Hanlon, a
military specialist with the Brookings Institution. The
study also noted that other aspects of the war can have lingering adverse
effects in Iraq. "Already seriously damaged by earlier wars and sanctions,
the physical infrastructure [of Iraq] suffered further degradation in the 2003
war," the report said. "Less tangible but equally important is the
social infrastructure, battered by oppression and war. Violence, poverty,
unemployment, and family/community relationships all influence health and
prospects for individual and community development." Medact
cited statistics suggesting that 7 percent of hospitals in Iraq were damaged
during combat or postwar looting, including three that took direct hits, and a
UN Children's Education Fund report that found 210,000 newborns were not
immunized because vaccine storage facilities were damaged. But
O'Hanlon argued that overall, the war has benefitted Iraqis. He said that oil is
being produced at a rate of more than 2 million barrels a day, electricity
levels are now higher than prewar levels, and murder rates are starting to fall
around the country. "If
you compare lost lives in the war plus lost lives in the turmoil that followed
Saddam, you compare that to preexisting conditions with the sanctions plus
Saddam's atrocities, conditions are not worse for Iraqis," O'Hanlon said. Robert
Schlesinger can be reached at schlesinger@globe.com (c) Copyright 2003 Globe Newspaper Company. Nov. 12, 2003 We want to know what you think of this article.
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