Under
Arroyo Presidency:
Instability and More Hardship for Filipinos
Under
a scenario that Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is proclaimed president, Filipinos
should expect greater instability and economic hardship. This was the consensus
of the five resource speakers invited by Bulatlat.com to a round-table
discussion held in Quezon City last May 18. The round-table discussion was held
amid mounting reports of widespread fraud and terrorism characterizing the May
10 national and local elections in the Philippines.
By
Bulatlat.com
 A
grim scenario awaits the Philippines in the aftermath of the May 10 election.
Given the probability of a Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo victory, Filipinos should
expect instability and greater economic hardship.
This
was the consensus of the five resource speakers invited by Bulatlat.com
to a round-table discussion held in Quezon City last May 18.
The
resource speakers were: Prof. Benito Lim, a retired professor of political
science at the University of the Philippines and a political analyst; Danilo
Vizmanos; a retired Navy captain and chair of Selda, an association of former
political prisoners; Rafael Mariano, peasant leader and second House nominee of
the progressive party-list Anakpawis (Toiling Masses); Elmer Labog, chairman of
the Kilusang Mayo Uno (May First Labor Center); and Girlie Padilla, acting
secretary general of the Ecumenical Movement for Justice and Peace (EMJP).
The
round-table discussion was held amid mounting reports of widespread fraud and
terrorism characterizing the May 10 national and local elections in the
Philippines. Supporters of the incumbent president, Macapagal-Arroyo, are
gearing for a fresh mandate under the assumption that she has won the
presidency. But supporters of her closest rival, actor Fernando Poe, Jr., are
crying foul insisting that he won the presidency and have threatened to block
Macapagal-Arroyo’s proclamation as president.
Both
Lim and Vizmanos contended that if finally proclaimed, Macapagal-Arroyo would be
a “minority president” or a leader devoid of legitimacy. Most Filipino
voters believe that either Poe won the presidency or that Macapagal-Arroyo would
be taking the presidency through widespread vote-buying, fraud and other
irregularities, they said.
New
instability
Vizmanos
fears a new period of instability because of the expected protests. And he
believes that Macapagal-Arroyo might not be able to win the loyalty of the
entire Armed Forces, leading to further destabilization.
Mariano,
whose party-list, Anakpawis, was a victim of dagdag-bawas (a Filipino
term for vote padding/shaving) and military-instigated violence, put it more
bluntly saying that Macapagal-Arroyo will not last her six-year term.
The
peasant leader said the president, who will begin her new term from a
“position of weakness,” would just be simply overwhelmed by tumultuous
events arising from the present economic crisis and political instability that
her own presidency since 2001 aggravated. (Macapagal-Arroyo, then vice
president, took over as president in January 2001 after the ouster of Joseph
Estrada by a people’s uprising.)
Labog,
on the other hand, foresees renewed attacks against workers such as, for
instance, a wage freeze policy under a Macapagal-Arroyo presidency. She is going
to use her “fresh mandate” as a pretext for mounting a new wave of
demolitions in the country’s urban poor communities, he said.
Anti-terror
bill
Padilla
expects the administration-sponsored anti-terrorism bill to be pushed in
Congress and will be used as a tool for further suppressing legitimate
opposition particularly against militant groups and the bloc of progressive
party-list groups. She also sees another uphill battle for the bill indemnifying
Marcos torture victims given the reelection of Ferdinand Marcos’ daughter,
Imee, in the House.
Vizmanos
also told Bulatlat.com that the May 2004 elections should be seen as not
merely a clash of political parties but of class interests. He was amazed by how
major vested interests in the country including business, the military and
police, as well as the Catholic church and religious sects meddled openly and
brazenly to ensure the election of their candidates particularly Macapagal-Arroyo.
Lim
agreed with Vizmanos as he described the elections as an intra-elite rivalry. He
observed that past elections were always dictated by interests of the various
factions of the ruling elite and that after every political circus traditional
politicians would be the first to betray the masses’ interests.
On
the other hand, Lim and Mariano also agreed that should Poe win in the election,
the country should expect a resurgence of the Marcoses and compromises with the
Estradas.
Excerpts
of the round-table discussion follow:
The
Political Picture
 Prof.
Benito Lim: In the
surveys of the last two and a half years, it was clear that the people had no
love lost for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, since she was always trailing behind
other prospective candidates.
However,
the opposition’s apparent defeat in the election is of its own doing. They
failed to field a common candidate. It was a deceitful rat race.
Fernando
Poe, Jr. is not to be blamed for the fact that he is not aware of what happened
to him. He was reined by Senators Angara and Sotto, who are reportedly “big
alligators.”
Poe,
Jr., who said that he is against trapos (traditional politicians). But
those who took him in were all trapos, so his anti-trapo image was
discredited. When he was just beginning to declare his intention to run for the
presidency, he had an approval rating of 37-38 percent. That slid to 33 percent
when he started to be surrounded by trapos.
Second,
there was the question of his citizenship. People consider it a
not-so-significant issue, but it is actually what did him in. His financiers,
when his citizenship was being questioned, shied away from financing his
campaign, worried about what would happen to their money if he should be
disqualified.
The
others, because they thought Lacson would be the opposition bet, cast their
money with him.
And
GMA (Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo) organized well her machinery. She chose not only
the usual trapos, but trapos who could connect to the D and E
crowds, the masses, the urban poor.
The
intra-opposition rivalry also gave GMA the chance to take a lead in the race.
 Danilo
Vizmanos:
In at least one respect, the May 10 election differs significantly from previous
elections. It was not only a confrontation between personalities or political
camps within the ruling class.
To
a certain extent, it reflected the conflict of class interests. GMA was backed
by economic vested interests, foreign and local, vis-a-vis FPJ who was backed
mostly by the marginalized masses.
Unlike
before, the systematic cheating process is blatant and undisguised. Before, the
election updates were very frequent, but now there is no transparency.
The
“victory” of GMA through massive cheating will create an unstable and
combustible political situation. It is unlikely that the broad masses who
supported and voted for FPJ will accept a flawed verdict, rigged verdict,
official though it may be, with flaccidity and resignation. Given the above
situation, a new wave of political mass actions centered at NCR (National
Capital Region) and principal cities is highly probable. It may be broader than
past similar actions.
 Elmer
Labog: (Presidential
aspirant) Eddie Villanueva’s recent statement that they (his party) could not
accept a “bogus president” was sharp.
The
way things are going, Mrs. Arroyo and her camp seem to be conditioning the
public mind that she is going to be the winner.
Rafael
Mariano: Even granting
the prospect of an Arroyo victory, her fresh six-year mandate will start from a
position of weakness. She has reached a degree of political isolation.
 The
post-election scenario, which we may call a GMA victory, will be full of
political compromises. To whom is her offer of a government of national unity
addressed? To the reactionary political opposition.
It
is really difficult to put a closure to the issue that the election was fraught
with fraud.
Economy
and People’s Issues
Lim:
We have one of the highest inflation rates. We have an average deficit spending
of P200 million a year.
Our
economy is export-oriented, that is clear. We are dependent on foreign
investments because we have no capital, we have no technology.
What
our leaders should do is to take stock of our resources. They have to think of
ways to reinvent the economy.
During
this election, not one of the candidates addressed the problems of our economy.
Labog:
The recent oil price hikes...will severely affect the poor, particularly the
peasant masses and the urban poor.
We
can expect a worsening of the lack of jobs and livelihood. And such a situation
will remain, especially considering that the government continues to cling to
pro-globalization policies: liberalization, deregulation, and privatization of
the economy.
Regardless
of who will lead the government, the issues of wages, housing, and land reform
will remain.
I
think that it is high time that the nationalist demands of the people be raised.
And the basic sectors – the peasants, workers, and urban poor – should take
the lead in this.
They
say that life is like a wheel: sometimes you’re on top and sometimes you’re
underneath. But in our case that wheel is flat and the basic sectors are always
underneath. So what has to be done is to inflate that wheel to make it roll and
place the basic sectors on top.
Human
Rights
Padilla:
Human rights were never
part of GMA’s platform. The issue of human rights under the Arroyo
administration is a battered issue that was highlighted by a bloody election.
 If
we trace GMA’s last three years, we see that although she started with a
supposed policy of national reconciliation, the all-out war
continued...especially in Mindanao. She also wielded an iron hand through her
“Strong Republic” program, which was supposedly for the economy...
If
GMA continues her presidency, the support for the U.S. war on terror will go on.
We
can expect the implementation of policies that will institutionalize human
rights violations like the Anti-Terrorism Bill. Although its passage was delayed
because of public protests, this is not an assurance that the measure will not
push through. They will intensify moves to push for its passage so that they
would be free to commit human rights violations. Bulatlat.com
Back
to top
We
want to know what you think of this article.
|
