GMA Won’t Survive 2005
- Analysts
Two political analysts say that
considering her administration’s unpopularity, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo
may not last through 2005. Disgruntled military elements and Fernando Poe,
Jr.’s supporters may conspire to bring her down from power.
BY ALEXANDER MARTIN REMOLLINO
Bulatlat
President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo might not last in office through 2005.
This was the
observation made by Luis Teodoro, a political analyst for the Center for
People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG), in a Dec. 31 interview with
Bulatlat. Another political analyst, Benito Lim, made a similar
observation in a subsequent interview.
“There is a lot of
opposition to the Macapagal-Arroyo government – from left to right,” said
Teodoro, who is also former Dean of the University of the Philippines’
(UP) College of Mass Communication
and a columnist of Today.
The observations of
Professors Teodoro and Lim are significant in the light of the results of
a survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) for the fourth quarter of
2004, which reveals a high prevalence of pessimism among Filipinos for the
said period.
Half of the
respondents surveyed by SWS nationwide said their quality of life worsened
from 2003, while only 19 percent said it improved. Of these, only 25
percent expect their quality of life to improve in 2005, while 30 percent
expect it to worsen.
Lim, a former
political science professor at UP who now teaches Chinese Studies at the
Ateneo de Manila University, said that Macapagal-Arroyo may be unseated
“if she is not able to turn the economy around…and if she doesn’t check
graft and corruption.”
The Philippine
economy fared badly in 2004, with a fiscal deficit hitting the government
and unemployment reaching record highs. Meanwhile, the Philippines, as in
2003, found itself among the world’s most corrupt countries based on a
report by the London-based think tank Transparency International.
The SWS survey
results further reveal a net optimism of –5 for the same period compared
to +6 in August 2004.
“Dominance of
pessimism is rare,” noted Iremae D. Labucay of the SWS in an article
explaining the survey results, “and previously occurred only in March 2003
(the Iraq war), September/October 2000 (Juetenggate), and in 1984 (post-Aquino
assassination).”
March 2003 marked the
launching of war against Iraq by the United States; the Sept.-Oct. 2000
“juetenggate” exposed then President Joseph Estrada’s link to illegal
gambling and other charges that led to his ouster in January 2001. 1984
was the heightening of the anti-Marcos dictatorship movement that ended in
the dictator’s fall in February 1986.
Staying power
Teodoro attributes
Macapagal-Arroyo’s having been able to last in office longer than Estrada
to U.S. support.
“On (the issue) of
the war on ‘terror,’ Macapagal-Arroyo jumped (into the U.S. camp) at a
time when Bush needed to...provide it with a semblance of legitimacy,”
Teodoro noted. Macapagal-Arroyo was the first Asian leader to support the
U.S.-led anti-“terror” war.
Estrada, Teodoro
explained, did not have as much U.S. support. The U.S. perceived him as
“just another minor leader of a small country,” Teodoro said.
Estrada signed into
law the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), which grants extraterritorial and
extrajudicial privileges to U.S. military personnel visiting the country
for military “exercises.” The agreement was widely opposed by activist
groups and nationalists, who viewed it as an impingement on Philippine
sovereignty.
However, Estrada
never registered clear commitments of support to the U.S. military
offensives in the Balkans and Africa under the administration of Bill
Clinton.
But Teodoro said
Macapagal-Arroyo cannot be complacent even as she enjoys U.S. support.
“There is great skepticism in the U.S. about her capacity to survive and
protect U.S. interests,” Teodoro noted.
This, he said, is due
to her administration’s growing unpopularity. “The U.S. will not go with
you if you cannot last,” he pointed out. “If you cannot last, they might
as well help you go under.”
Teodoro noted that
last July, mass protests had forced Macapagal-Arropyo to pull out Filipino
troops deployed to Iraq as part of the U.S.-led international
“peace-keeping forces” to save the life of overseas worker Angelo de la
Cruz. De la Cruz had been captured by Iraqi resistance fighters who
threatened to behead him unless the Philippine government withdrew its
troops from Iraq immediately.
The political analyst
cited a report by the rightist U.S. think tank Heritage Foundation, which
among other things criticized Macapagal-Arroyo for her inability to
protect U.S. interests. The report came out after the pull-out of Filipino
troops from Iraq.
Prospects for
ouster
Asked whether the
country may see another Edsa-type mobilization similar to those that
ousted Marcos in 1986 and Estrada in 2001, Teodoro said such a scenario
appears to be unlikely given present circumstances.
Political groups
associated with the late actor Fernando Poe, Jr., Macapagal-Arroyo’s
closest rival in the May 2004 election which is widely believed to have
been fraud-ridden, have been warning of Edsa-type mobilizations to oust
the incumbent president, especially after the outpour of mass grief and
outrage spawned by his death Dec. 14 – the day the first hearing of his
electoral protest before the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) was to
be held.
One of the critical
factors for the success of Edsa-type mobilizations, Teodoro said, is the
broadest support from the middle class. “Whatever may be said that there
was fraud in the last election – and even the middle class appears to know
that – Poe is derided by the middle class,” Teodoro observed.
Lim also does not yet
see an Edsa-type mobilization as possible, citing the present lack of a
figure who could unify the opposition. But Lim does not dismiss the
possibility that there may emerge an opposition leader who could challenge
the incumbent administration.
Teodoro said that if
Macapagal-Arroyo is booted out of office, it could be through a
conspiracy.
He sees as possible
players in such a plot disgruntled military officers and personnel, as
well as sections of “civil society” known to be opposed to the Macapagal-Arroyo
presidency but which “have over time been supportive of Poe.” They might
explore links with the U.S., Teodoro said. Bulatlat
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