Analysis
Desperate Times
People simply do not buy repeated
hectoring by the President and her allies that charter change will bring
the country to paradise and news that she is sick generates further
expectations for her to step down. The survival options for the besieged
President have simply depreciated.
BY THE POLICY STUDY, PUBLICATION AND
ADVOCACY PROGRAM,
CENTER FOR PEOPLE EMPOWERMENT IN GOVERNANCE
Posted by Bulatlat
To Gloria M. Arroyo, the objective is quite clear: Con-ass is not just
simply amending the Constitution but is also about making sure that she
completes her term as president in 2010, or even beyond. Con-ass – along
with other repressive decrees and the military – is her survivalkit. She
knows that if everything else fails, congressional elections will push
through in May next year with the anti-Gloria traditional opposition –
subject to favorable conditions – likely to gain more seats in Congress
leading possibly to a third impeachment against the President. If that
materializes, the chances of removing the President from power will be
quite high.
In effect, the next polls will not just be an electoral exercise. It will
essentially become a crucial political struggle for removing the
president. The vote that will go to the opposition – for that matter, to
the anti-Gloria party-list groups – will seal the fate of the presidency.
Again, however, this under the condition that in the election the
traditional opposition can act as one and is able to match government
resources and the use of fraud that will be unleashed to pre-empt an
administration debacle.
Mrs. Arroyo, since her constitutionally-infirmed election in 2004, has
been fighting through thick and thin for political survival hanging for
dear life for continued support by her allies in Congress, the Armed
Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the U.S. government. She has used the
iron hand – escalating the political persecution of the Left allegedly
through extra-judicial executions and threatening to arrest and file
rebellion charges against alleged coup plotters and opposition leaders.
She had planned to declare martial law early this year but imposed an
emergency rule instead.
She entered into a deal with former President Fidel V. Ramos and House
Speaker Jose de Venecia to summon her power and resources toward a
constitutional change. Under the pretext of shifting to a unicameral
parliamentary government, charter change allow the pro-administration
legislative majority to extend their term of office and control the new
legislature thus ensuring her stay in office as chief of state – all
without going through the May 2007 elections. When the Supreme Court (SC)
shot down the administration-concocted "people's initiative" to amend the
charter, she backed the option of turning Congress into a constituent
assembly for the same self-serving political goal. The fast-track formula
includes pressuring senators to collaborate with the
administration-dominated House to vote as "one Congress" for the Con-ass
and the appointment of Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago, an Arroyo ally, as
the new chief justice of the high court. But time is running out.
In her desperate effort to stay in power despite an overwhelming public
sentiment for her to quit the presidency, Mrs. Arroyo has courted more
enemies, lost valuable allies and created more dilemmas. She has also
drawn international condemnation for the human rights violations committed
by her security forces and, for the same reason, has risked losing the
confidence of foreign investors.
Cabinet infighting
All these and the crisis of corruption, cabinet infighting, increased
poverty and widespread hunger among the poor have caused her popularity
rating to dip further, based on the latest surveys. People simply do not
buy repeated hectoring by the President and her allies that charter change
will bring the country to paradise and news that she is sick generates
further expectations for her to step down. Even the influential Makati
business community representing the country's major corporations has
spoken against the Con-ass warning of its being divisive. The survival
options for the besieged President have simply depreciated.
It would take more than political clout and massive resources to ram
through Con-ass. Most members of the Senate will reject it and besides
most of them and the rest of the anti-Gloria opposition are geared for the
election now that, if the surveys are credible, they appear to have better
chances of winning. It would be an act of brazenness for Mrs. Arroyo to
install Defensor-Santiago as the new SC chief justice by Dec. 7 to ensure
another court vote this time in favor of Con-ass. That – assuming majority
of the justices will support this obviously politically-motivated trick -
would incense the public even more, galvanize an alliance between the
opposition and progressive groups and spark more political turmoil.
The President may then create an artificial scenario – such as "terrorist
bombings" – that would justify the declaration of martial law. The
blueprint of installing a civilian-military junta has been pre-determined
with the presence of 29 former generals and senior military and police
officials holding key cabinet positions. But a martial law option is a
political suicide. It will only precipitate a massive political uprising
and hasten the armed revolution.
Considering the odds, will Mrs. Arroyo's senior political handlers – Ramos
and De Venecia - tell her to form instead a coalition government with the
opposition and former allies? Will she strike a compromise that, granting
an opposition victory in the 2007 elections, prevent her from being
impeached? What other alternatives and trade-offs are left to save her
neck?
Time is not on her side. Posted by Bulatlat
*The Center for People Empowerment
in Governance (CenPEG) is a public policy center established shortly
before the May 2004 elections to help promote people empowerment in
governance specially the democratic representation of the marginalized
poor.
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