ELECTORAL SHOWDOWN: The political polarization gripping the country today is such that the May 2007 elections are expected to be a showdown between President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the broad anti-Arroyo forces.

The battle lines have been drawn.  As of this writing, only the four members of the so-called “Wednesday Group” namely, Senators Joker Arroyo, Ralph Recto, Francis Pangilinan, and Manny Villar have to make up their minds. Villar has already made it clear that he is definitely not running under the administration ticket.

In the senatorial elections, it is the slate of the United Opposition (UNO) versus the “Team Unity” of the administration. Even if the four members of the Wednesday Group opt to run as independents and the administration wants to call its slate as “Team Unity,” the coming elections would still be a battle between two camps: a choice between the pro-Arroyo and anti-Arroyo. Some call it a proxy war between Arroyo and Estrada, but even as the former president has a lot of influence in UNO, he is not the common thread that binds the slate. 

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has so polarized the country that one is either pro or anti, no in-betweens. The UNO senatorial candidates, in particular, and the anti-Arroyo movement, in general have their political differences, as the administration is wont to point out.  But Arroyo has pushed them together against her.

The UNO was able to form its senatorial slate early on.  It even had to contend with fall-outs from those who could not be accommodated such as Tito Sotto, Tessie Aquino-Oreta, and film actor Richard Gomez. 

While the opposition had difficulties paring down its slate, the administration had to resort to what it calls “Team Unity,” to justify its raiding of the opposition camp.  There are simply not too many candidates in the administration who have a chance of winning.  To fill up its slate, the administration even eyed movie actors such as Cesar Montano and Edu Manzano, in addition to Richard Gomez. 

The opposition is riding high, topping surveys.  The most recent Pulse Asia survey showed the opposition, with the inclusion of the Wednesday Group, getting the top 18 positions.  The administration ticket is in a precarious situation considering that only 12 positions in the Senate are up for grabs. This is consistent with earlier surveys by Pulse Asia, SWS, and Ibon Foundation. The opposition candidates earned popularity because of their critical stance against a very unpopular president.  No other Philippine president had to contend with negative ratings for so long.

On the other hand, the administration candidates are being weighed down by the crisis of legitimacy of the Arroyo administration, the worsening political killings, forced disappearances and other human rights violations, and the oppressive economic policies and additional tax burden imposed by the government. 

Not only administration candidates in the senatorial slate would be affected.  The same is true for its candidates in the lower House.  They would have to contend with both their identification with the Arroyo government and their performance at the local level. Representatives such as Edcel Lagman and Luis Villafuerte would have to answer for the fact that they were busy maneuvering to have the second impeachment complaint junked while their constituents were suffering in the aftermath of typhoon Reming. Likewise, other administration representatives had demonstrated their “blind-dog” (bulag na tuta pa) loyalty to President Arroyo on national television and radio when they, irrationally and without the benefit of due process, used their numbers to junk the impeachment complaint.   

The Arroyo administration has the potential of surpassing the trashing that the Bush administration got from the American electorate last year. That is, if it would let the May 2007 elections take its natural course. Indications are the Arroyo administration would do everything to prevent the opposition from getting the majority in both Houses for fear of facing another impeachment complaint, which would have more chances of succeeding in an opposition-dominated Congress. And it has a lot in its favor to prevent opposition candidates from being declared as winners. 

The administration has the machinery and resources of the government at its disposal, remember the PhilHealth cards and fertilizer scam? Second, it is the same COMELEC, which has been tainted by charges of electoral fraud in the 2004 elections and the “Hello Garci” scandal, that is in charge of the May 2007 midterm elections. Third, the two Hermogenes are at the helm of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), the biggest armed group in the country.  Hermogenes Esperon who was mentioned in the “Hello Garci” tape is the AFP chief of staff.  Hermogenes Ebdane who was suspected of spiriting away the controversial Virgilio Garcillano, who is widely perceived as the voice in the “Hello Garci” tape, is the defense secretary. Other generals who were mentioned in the tape have also been rewarded key positions in the AFP.

The AFP is far from being non-political and non-partisan.  It has been used in elections before.  And the expose’ of key officers in the Marines showed that they are being used even more so in recent years. Already, the political killings of members of progressive party lists such as Bayan Muna (People First), Anakpawis (Toiling Masses) and Gabriela Women’s Party would definitely have an effect on their ability to campaign.  There are even reports that the AFP has an ongoing campaign to prevent progressive parties and candidates from winning in the May 2007 elections.

Guns, goons and gold have traditionally dictated the results of Philippine elections.  The people can expect more guns, goons and gold in the coming May 2007 elections.  With the desperation of the Arroyo administration to stay in power, massive fraud worse than what was seen in the 2004 elections may be committed this May 2007.  That is, if the Filipino people would let it happen. While it is true that the Filipino people, especially the masses, have participated in elections for so long without seeing any substantial change in their lives, except perhaps that it has gotten worse, the results of the May 2007 elections would be an opportunity for the people to express what they think of the Arroyo government. Bulatlat             

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