This story
was taken from Bulatlat, the Philippines's alternative weekly
newsmagazine (www.bulatlat.com, www.bulatlat.net, www.bulatlat.org).
Vol. VII, No. 4, Feb. 25-March 3, 2007
ANALYSIS
Beyond Arroyo and Beyond
Retaking Power
With the formation of the senatorial slates of
both the traditional opposition and the Arroyo administration, the coming
elections are certain to be a power struggle among factions of the ruling elite.
It will be a power dynamics defined by the administration's "Team Unity" ticket
that is banking on the favorable outcome of the mid-term congressional elections
to allow the incumbent President to stay in office and pursue constitutional
change thereafter, and the Estrada-inspired United Opposition (UNO) ticket that
is intent on removing her from Malacañang. Administration spokespersons have accused UNO,
now renamed "Genuine Opposition" or GO, of lacking any campaign platform except
the ouster of President Gloria M. Arroyo. Arroyo had previously faced two
impeachment complaints in Congress for election fraud, betrayal of public trust,
human rights abuses, and other constitutional violations. But the GO is
determined to make the 2004 election fraud an issue since, according to
reelectionist Sen. Panilo Lacson, "it involves integrity and accountability of
public officials." "If you are elected, you should be
accountable for your actions. You just can't get away with cheating in an
election or pilfering millions of pesos in public funds in the fertilizer scam,"
Lacson said in a newspaper report last week. "We were hoodwinked before - we
will not be hoodwinked again." Topnotch candidates GO's ticket appears formidable as it includes
candidates who have topped previous senatorial races. These are: former Sen.
Loren Legarda (Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC) who ran for vice president
in 2004; Lacson (Independent) who was also a presidential candidate in 2004;
Senate President Manuel Villar (Nacionalista Party, guest candidate), former
House Speaker and 2010 presidential aspirant; and Francis Pangilinan (Liberal
Party / "Drilon wing," guest candidate), Senate Majority Floor Leader. The rest are Rep. Francis Escudero (NPC,
Bicol); Alan Peter Cayetano (NP, Rizal); Benigno Aquino III (LP / "Drilon
wing"); Anna Dominique Coseteng (NPC, former senator); John Henry Osmeña (NPC,
Cebu), former senator; Aquilino Pimentel III (Partido Demokratikong Pilipino –
Lakas ng Bayan); Sonia Roco (Aksyon Demokratiko, Bicol); and cashiered Navy Lt.
SG Antonio Trillanes (Independent). Escudero, Cayetano and Aquino III, all
belonging to political dynasties, have been topping in recent popularity
surveys. Osmeña, who comes from a political dynasty in central Visayas that
spans several generations, and Pimentel III, son of incumbent Sen. Aquilino
Pimentel, Jr., are from vote-rich Cebu and Mindanao, respectively. Roco is the widow of the late Sen. Raul Roco,
who also ran for president in 2004. Trillanes was the leader of Magdalo that
pulled the 2003 Oakwood mutiny and was linked to ousted President Joseph
Estrada. He is expected to represent idealistic sections of the Armed Forces of
the Philippines (AFP). In varying degrees, Escudero, Cayetano,
Aquino III, Villar, Lacson, Roco and Trillanes had led or supported calls for
the removal of Arroyo from the presidency. They also figured in the opposition
to constitutional change which is widely believed to be a ploy of the President
together with Lakas-CMD leaders to perpetuate the ruling coalition in power and
preempt another impeachment. Trillanes, who has been detained since late 2003,
took the extreme measure of toppling Arroyo through an attempted coup, so claims
Malacañang. Referendum It is the nature of the country's
traditional elections that power struggle and political convenience can
galvanize disparate forces: Villar, Pangilinan, Legarda, the families of Roco
and Pimentel III and, in a defining moment, Lacson, as director general of the
PNP, were key figures in the 2001 ouster of Estrada that was initiated by the
militant Left and paved the way for the ascendance of Gloria Arroyo into the
presidency. Escudero has long been identified with Estrada, was in the frontline
against his impeachment and became an initiator of the two impeachments against
the incumbent President. Escudero is from the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC)
of political kingpin Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr. which is split in this election,
with one faction siding with Mrs. Arroyo. Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, UNO president,
who took pains in cobbling together the GO ticket at times in close talks with
Estrada – who is in detention since mid-2001 - has minced no words in saying
that the mid-term election is a "referendum" for Arroyo and that the President's
removal is a campaign issue. As opposition leader, Binay was himself a victim of
a Malacañang purge to remove him as city mayor on graft charges last year. Conversely, the administration "Team Unity"
clusters pro-Arroyo hardliners, pro-Estrada allies who turned into the
proverbial "political butterflies," local political figures and TV-movie
celebrities. Leyte Gov. Jericho Petilla, a member of a political dynasty in
Eastern Visayas, who was earlier included in the ticket, begged off at the last
minute because, reports said, he was certain to lose. Movie actor Cesar Montano,
who hails from Bohol, took his place. In the administration ticket are proven
pro-Arroyo allies: Michael Defensor (LP, "Atienza wing"), former presidential
chief of staff; Rep. Juan Miguel Zubiri (Lakas-CMD, Bukidnon); Rep. Prospero
Pichay, Jr. (Lakas-CMD, Surigao del Sur); Sen. Edgardo Angara (LDP, Quezon),
Estrada's former executive secretary; and Ilocos Sur Gov. Luis "Chavit" Singson
(Lakas-CMD), the whistle-blower who precipitated Estrada's impeachment.
Sens. Joker Arroyo (Kampi/Independent, Makati),
who headed the prosecution in the Estrada impeachment, and Ralph Recto (Lakas-CMD/Independent,
Batangas) had agonized which ticket to join but finally decided to cast their
lot with the administration slate. Former Sens. Vicente Sotto III (NPC), a TV
personality, and Tessie Aquino-Oreta (NPC), sister of slain Sen. Benigno Aquino,
Jr., jumped into the administration ticket after being dropped from the GO
slate. Sotto III and Aquino-Oreta used to be in the inner circle of Estrada and
the late Fernando Poe, Jr, who ran against Gloria Arroyo in 2004. Zambales Gov. Vicente Magsaysay (Lakas-CMD/Kilusang
Bagong Lipunan) and Jamalul Kiram III (PDSP), heir to the Sultanate of Sulu, are
supposed to represent the LGUs, claimed to be the local government base of the
President. Magsaysay is a cousin of Sen. Ramon Magsaysay, Jr., son of a former
president, while Kiram III's PDSP is the party of National Security Adviser
Norberto Gonzalez, who has led the campaign of vilification against progressive
Party-list groups and other alleged Left "front organizations" and is blamed
partly for the reported deaths of hundreds of activists. United in what? It is difficult to see how the
administration slate will be able to project itself as a united team given the
impression that its formation was made in haste, that it included "rejects" from
the opposition ticket as well as two movie and TV actors whose selection was
based on presumed crowd-drawing assets. President Arroyo needs to work hard in order
to match and fend off the opposition's strategy to turn the congressional race
into a "referendum" for the chief executive. Campaigning on a platform of
"economic growth," which she and Angara have so declared, will not win votes
simply because there is nothing they can show to convince the mass electorate.
On the other hand, Binay and the opposition
candidates should be able to give substance to the strategy of using the
election as an issue of presidential accountability. Reviving the "Hello, Garci"
election controversy can be an effective strategy because of its "issue recall"
advantage but it must not be linked narrowly to what some opposition stalwarts
aim of transforming the election into a choice between Arroyo and Estrada.
Accountability is a legitimate and
principled campaign issue so long as it is interlocked with the mass
electorate's immediate concerns: the abuse of power, gross and systematic
violations of human rights and political repression, the U.S.-supported war on
terror, labor wage, rising unemployment and poverty, corruption and rising
criminality, military discontent, and so on. Another common issue which the GO and its
guest candidates – Villar and Pangilinan – can take a stand is Mrs. Arroyo's
plan to abolish the Senate and which will likely be revived in a constitutional
change that she and her allies will pursue after the mid-term elections. Even if, however, the opposition will be
able to win sizeable seats in the senatorial poll – as some political forecasts
predict - that will not be enough to ensure the removal of Arroyo. They should
be able win at least the required minimum number of seats out of the present 212
elective positions in the House of Representatives to be able to make a go for a
third and possibly successful impeachment against the President. It takes principled positions to be able to
rise up to the challenge of the electoral process. It takes convincing the
electorate who have long been sickened by elections that mean nothing to their
lives and future that this one is more than just a choice between Estrada's
candidates and Arroyo's candidates and is, therefore, different. The opposition
should be able to show that this is beyond ousting Arroyo and beyond retaking
power. Cenpeg/posted by Bulatlat CenPEG is
a public policy center set up shortly before the May 2004 elections to help
promote people empowerment in governance and democratic representation of the
marginalized poor in an elitist and patronage-driven electoral and political
system. It conducts research/policy study, education and trainings on governance
and people empowerment. To pursue its programs in research and
education-training, CenPEG taps a wide pool of political analysts, public policy
experts and academic scholars for their expertise and experience in public
governance as well as in grassroots empowerment. © 2007 Bulatlat
■
Alipato Publications Permission is granted to reprint or redistribute this article, provided its author/s and Bulatlat are properly credited and notified.
It takes convincing the electorate who have long been sickened by elections that
mean nothing to their lives and future that this one is more than just a choice
between Estrada's candidates and Arroyo's candidates and is, therefore,
different. The opposition should be able to show that this is beyond ousting
Arroyo and beyond retaking power.
By the Policy Study, Publication and
Advocacy (PSPA) Program
Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)
Posted by Bulatlat