After the Elections, Greater
Uncertainties
The May 14 elections is
being held in the backdrop of People Power 2, which ousted an elected president
and a continuing “rebellion” or coup threat as part of a reported power-grab
attempt by some opposition leaders. In the Philippines, traditional elections
are always messy but what makes this one quite interesting to watch is the
Left’s participation. The greater thrill, however, could be how the election
results will affect President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s chances of sailing
through the current political and economic woes that, in turn, will determine
her own chances of election in the 2004 presidential polls.
By EDMUNDO SANTUARIO III
The May 14 national and local elections may go down as one of the most contentious, most polarized and most violent in the history of Philippine politics. But, for the first time since 1987, the Left forces are participating in the elections, which they used to boycott. With their participation, elections will never be the same again, at least for now.
Some 3,600 congressional and local elective seats are up for grabs on Monday when about 35 million voters troop to the polls. Of the total number of seats, 13 are being vied in the Senate while about 250 in the House of Representatives, 50 of them for party-list representatives. Aspiring for all these are some 17,600 candidates.
The Commission on Elections (Comelec) has declared 76 towns and provinces as election “hot spots” sending both the police and military to deploy task forces. The declaration about the poll “hot spots” is not only because at least 51 persons including candidates have been killed in election-related violence. It was also due to the presence of private armies of rival candidates and the Marxist New People’s Army that, according to military and police authorities, may disrupt the voting. Police alert is also up for possible coup threats.
The campaign period was practically kicked off by the massing of people at the Edsa Shrine and other points in the country leading to the ouster of the disgraced president Joseph Estrada on Jan. 20. The takeover of the presidency by Vice President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo boosted the chances of her Lakas-NUCD party in the May 14 elections along with allied political groups forming the People Power Coalition (PPC).
But the new opposition – those identified with the deposed president – still had all the chances of matching the newfound strength of the PPC, relying as they did on what remained of Estrada’s so-called “mass appeal” and “sympathy votes,” particularly in vote-rich Mindanao. That could have been undercut, however, by the opposition leaders’ agitation of pro-Estrada supporters who, for days in late April, had gathered at the Edsa Shrine to protest the former president’s arrest. The supporters were provoked to storm Malacañang on May 1, the prelude to an attempt at power grab by some opposition leaders.
The coup plot failed. At least two opposition figures, reelectionist Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile and former ambassador to the United States Ernesto Maceda, were arrested while two others, reelectionist Sen. Gregorio Honasan and former police chief and Estrada ally Panfilo Lacson, went into hiding. The alleged coup attempt boomeranged, thus lessening the Puwersa ng Masa senatorial candidates’ chances of winning many seats.
Still, if the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) election survey (8:5 in favor of the PPC in the senatorial race) is to be believed, the Arroyo coalition is looking forward to a Senate not very much under its dominance. They may be able to secure, at best, 13:11 or even 12:12, considering that current Senate President Aquilino Pimentel Jr. is known to be independent.
“Dagdag-Bawas”
Target
Until the votes for congressional aspirants are counted, nobody knows how the House will look like. Worth looking into, however, is how the party-list contest will turn out.
As of press time, the Left’s Bayan Muna has been leading in recent surveys as well as in mock elections. But the party-list group, said its president Satur Ocampo on Friday, has been targeted by one of the major political parties in a “dagdag-bawas” (padding-shaving of votes) scheme to prevent the Left from having a voice in Congress. Some of its campaigners and volunteers, including nominee Ocampo himself, have been harassed; a number have been killed. (See sidebar.)
The harassments are reminiscent of the Left’s participation in the 1987 elections, where the Partido ng Bayan (PnB) underwent a lot of pressure and intimidation from the military to stop campaigning. The party’s president, Rolando Olalia, along with his driver, Leonor Alay-ay, were abducted and tortured to death by alleged members of the Rebolusyonaryong Alyansang Makabansa (RAM), which was then closely identified with Enrile.
Even with the alleged “dagdag-bawas” plot, Bayan Muna’s chances of grabbing seats in the House appear to be a foregone conclusion. The Left would have gained a new arena within which it would push its political and socio-economic agenda backed by a strong voice in the parliament of the streets, a well-organized grassroots constituency and an effective alliance with progressive politicians. Congress will never be the same again.
All things considered, Arroyo faces a post-election scenario with the same woes she inherited from Estrada and with the same political and economic uncertainties. All eyes will be focused on how she would be able to handle Congress, whose cooperation she will need in order to pursue her anti-poverty program and other centerpiece projects. Crime is reported to have been quietly in the upsurge, something that will not address government’s expectation of a renewed investment confidence.
Arroyo and her advisers may be right in their campaign to win over the masses of supporters who were misled to lay a siege on Malacañang. Their obvious goal is to narrow down the magnitude of sympathy Estrada still claims to enjoy as government prosecutors pursue graft and plunder cases against him.
But if they think distributing doleouts among the slum communities would do the trick, then they should think again. It will take more than this. It would take more comprehensive programs for the poor, which could also mean a strong political will to go against powerful traditional interests, be these from business, landlords and traditional politicians.
We don’t see much of that taking shape in the months ahead.