ANALYSIS

Much Ado about Nothing

Except for the alleged plot by the Magdalo to bomb the Batasan or take over the House of Representatives (HOR), there seems to be nothing “explosive” or extraordinary to announce or expect during this year’s SONA. Both the political crisis hounding the Arroyo administration and the economic crisis enveloping the country are far from being resolved.

BY BENJIE OLIVEROS
Bulatlat

The annual State of the Nation Address (SONA) by the President is fast approaching. It is an occasion where the President summarizes the accomplishments of the past year and outlines the thrusts of the government for the coming year. 

The occasion of the State of the Nation Address last year was much-awaited. Not so much because of what the President is about to say in terms of accomplishments or thrusts but because of the political turmoil at that time.  The controversy over the “Hello Garci” tapes exploded during the first two weeks of June; the President came out on television to apologize for her “impropriety” in talking with a certain Commission on Elections (COMELEC) official; and by July 8, 10 Cabinet secretaries collectively called the “Hyatt 10” announced their resignation and called on the President to resign.  This was followed by other calls for the President’s resignation including that by the Liberal Party headed by Senate President Franklin Drilon, the Makati Business Club led by Guillermo Luz, and the Finance Managers Association of the Philippines. The movement for President Arroyo’s ouster or resignation also peaked during the SONA, gathering around 45,000 to 60,000 people.

Except for the alleged plot by the Magdalo to bomb the Batasan or take over the House of Representatives (HOR), there seems to be nothing “explosive” or extraordinary to announce or expect on this year’s SONA. For one, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has to make up its mind on whether the Magdalo is just a small bunch of “misguided” soldiers or a dangerous and numerous force. The supposed plan that the AFP has been announcing publicly, which includes taking over the HOR and assassinating around 20 Cabinet secretaries, requires elaborate planning and coordination and would require a substantial number of troops. How the hell could six Magdalo officers carry out such an elaborate plan?

Second, while the Arroyo administration belittles the planned mobilization of militant groups during SONA and the newly-filed impeachment complaint, it is still far from resolving the crisis of legitimacy hounding the government. Groups that have called for the President’s resignation or ouster have not changed their position. The Malacañang-Senate conflict is far from over. Even the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP), which announced that it is “not inclined” to support the current impeachment complaint because of the rules and “mindsets of all the participating parties,”  has not abandoned its search for the truth that will resolve the crisis of legitimacy of the Arroyo administration. The filing of the impeachment complaint and the mobilization this SONA, on the other hand, show the tenacity of those seeking to oust Macapagal-Arroyo. 

Third, there is nothing to boast about in terms of the economy. The 5.5 percent growth rate in the Gross Domestic Product during the first half of 2006 is not exceptional considering the performance of the Philippines during the past years much less the performance of other countries in Asia. Furthermore, the economic analysis of Ibon Foundation reveals that the economic growth declared by government is due to unsustainable factors and is reflective of the weak fundamentals of the Philippine economy. 

Agriculture, which grew by 3.8 percent, merely rebounded from its contraction last year. And agricultural growth is far from being sustainable as it expands and contracts depending on the weather.  The agricultural trade deficit is even increasing because of aggressive trade liberalization under the World Trade Organization. While registering a 6 percent growth, the production capacity of manufacturing actually decreased. The number of establishments closing down or reducing their workforce increased by 50 percent compared to last year. Growth in the service sector at 6.2 percent has slowed down. Financial sector growth at 14.8 percent is due to the sale of securities, which essentially increases government debt.

Electronics, the biggest export of the country, is heavily dependent on imports with a value-added of a mere 30 percent or less.  With the country’s burgeoning trade deficits, it has become sorely dependent on OFW remittances to prop up the economy not only in terms generating the much-needed dollars but also in stimulating consumer spending.  

These are the impact of trade liberalization and the manifestation of the basic flaw of an export-oriented, import-dependent economy.

Meanwhile, the policies of deregulation and privatization have made the Filipino people vulnerable to the profiteering schemes of foreign and local big businesses.

Data by Ibon Foundation shows that oil prices increased by 101 times since deregulation in 1997.  It increased at an average of from 43 to 48 percent under Arroyo.  From 2001-2004 water rates of Manila Water rates increased by 121 percent and Maynilad by 40 percent.  From 2004 up to the present, Maynilad increased it rates by 64 percent and Manila Water by 42 percent. Power rates increased automatically every quarter since the passage of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act in 2001.

Majority of the Filipino people are either unemployed or are struggling with wages, which are insufficient for a decent living.  This has pushed more and more skilled Filipinos to seek employment abroad.

The Arroyo administration has time and again tried to solve the political crisis by pushing for Charter Change; constricting civil liberties; and accumulating human rights violations notably political killings and enforced disappearances.  Recently, in an effort to rally the people to its side, it raised the communist bogey once again and declared a “total war” against the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front of the Philippines (CPP-NPA-NDFP). But to no avail.

It tried to solve the economic crisis by intensifying its policies of liberalization, deregulation, and privatization, which it seeks to push further with Charter Change.  But these policies only worsened the crisis as it did in other parts of the world. 

For all the conspiracy theories being floated by the Arroyo government and the AFP, this year’s SONA is essentially no different from last year’s. The lives of the Filipino people are even worse today compared to the previous years.

Where will all these lead to?  Is there really nothing much to expect but worsening poverty?  Is there really no hope but to go abroad?  The answer lies in our hands. Bulatlat 

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