Electoral War?

The Republican Bush administration may use Iraq as a launching pad for its electoral campaign. The vagueness of the public sentiment on the possibility of the United States going to another war may transform itself in favor of a war against Iraq.

By Alexander Martin Remollino
Bulatlat.com

With elections for representatives barely two months away in the United States, issues concerning the overall "fight against terrorism" and the planned war against Iraq bear profound implications for the immediate future of the ruling Republican Party.

A year ago, polls conducted among Americans revealed an eagerness to go to war against Afghanistan. That was immediately after the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. This week, the results of a survey conducted by The New York Times show that about half of the respondents believe the Bush administration had done enough to protect them against terrorism.

In the survey, only one in ten believed the administration had made "a lot of progress" in fighting off terrorist threats from nations other than Afghanistan. One-fourth of the respondents and one third of those from the northeastern parts felt uneasy, believing they were not safe from another terrorist attack.

The survey also reveals a drop in confidence among the American public with regards the government's efforts to combat terrorism. Last year three-fifths of Americans believed the government had done enough to protect them against terrorism; only two-fifths believe so today.

Osama bin Laden is still used as a sort of measuring stick of success in the Afghan war. Sixty-one percent said they believed the Bush administration cannot claim to have won the war in Afghanistan unless bin Laden is captured or killed.

Fifty percent of the respondents were asked whether the United States should attack "another country" if it did not attack first. Of these, 47 percent believed it should not do so, while 41 percent said it should. The other half were asked the same question, but with "Iraq" used instead of "another country." Sixty-one percent favored a preemptive attack and 26 percent opposed it.

These figures reveal a public indecision on the prospect of the United States going to another war. To a generic question on how registered voters planned to vote in November, the Democrats showed a negligible edge of 41 percent to 37 percent. This gap is too small to foretell results. But among voters 45 years of age and above, who comprise three-fifths of the off-year electorate, the Democrats had a significant advantage.

Uncertainty

The combination of misgivings about the success of the overall "war on terrorism" and the ambivalence on the possibility of another war spells an uncertainty for the Republicans in the coming House elections. While the Democrats, on the whole, cannot yet claim a certain victory, public sentiments on the overall "war against terrorism" and the planned war against Iraq may translate themselves into votes against the Republicans.

In the light of this, the Republican Bush administration may use Iraq as a launching pad for its electoral campaign. The vagueness of the public sentiment on the possibility of the United States going to another war may transform itself in favor of a war against Iraq. While there is lack of confidence in the government on its achievements in the "war against terrorism," this may tilt in favor of the administration party should it pursue the war against Iraq. The Bush administration may use Iraq to regain eroding public sympathy.

Circumstances therefore seem to suggest that the planned war against Iraq would not be just a war against Iraq - it will most probably be also an electoral war of the Republicans against the Democrats. Bulatlat.com

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