Analysis 
Questions by Wicked Minds on Arroyo’s End-year Bombshell

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s decision to withdraw from the 2004 presidential derby had already been discussed and dissected to death by nearly all columnists and commentators. So, time to move on to other issues? Nah! Why miss the fun and leave the “dissecting” to others? So joining the bandwagon, here is how I see it.

By ROWENA CARRANZA 
Bulatlat.com

The first questions that came to most people’s mind when media breathlessly echoed to all corners of the land the president’s decision were: Is it for real? (Imagine the gasps and wide eyes.) Is it just a ploy to remedy her dismal position in the survey rating game which politicians, especially the 2004 hopefuls, find so important? (Imagine the raised eyebrows and jeers.)

Those who immediately tagged the announcement as a mere trick can’t really be blamed, considering the pains she takes for what lens men call “photo ops” – going on all fours to be seen appreciating indigenous weaving, plunging in knee-deep mud to pretend to plant rice, posing a la Men-in-Black for a magazine cover and visiting crime scenes to stand beside bullet-ridden corpses and suspected criminals.

Some cynics in fact wanted the president’s December 30 speech etched on a stone, with an added proviso regarding penalties in case of retraction.

Wicked minds have raised other questions, some inane, others not-so-inane: What triggered the decision?  Was it a product of a compromise – perhaps with the opposition in exchange for its silence regarding yet another scandal? Did she sleep well the night before The Day? Did she advise Washington about her decision before the speech? Why not Nov. 30, Bonifacio Day?

Issues against Arroyo

Whether she would make good this promise or not, it is easy to understand why at this point, the president found the need to make such a jaw-dropping announcement. 

The corruption cases that have erupted against her government – the P600 million budget overprice of the President Diosdado Macapagal Boulevard construction, the Piatco fiasco, the scandalous PeacE bonds which, if dissected, had presidential approval, Secretary Nani Perez and alleged $2 million bribe, the IMPSA scandal, the P8million donation to the Lualhati Foundation (the GMA equivalent of Erap’s Muslim Youth Foundation?) by fugitive Mark Jimenez, and many others – all threaten to pull down the Arroyo government which, ironically, was installed by an anti-corruption Edsa 2 uprising.

Then there’s her wishy-washy position regarding Estrada and the plunder cases against him.

Arroyo also made several miscalculations that, although unlikely to ignite another Edsa uprising, took their toll on her credibility. Among them her obstinate militarist stance that led to the scuttling of the peace negotiations with the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) and her rabidly pro-United States’ (U.S.) posture, going at great lengths to justify the heightened U.S. military presence in the country. This includes the secret signing of the Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement (MLSA) and her refusal to route it through the Philippine Senate, the Constitutionally mandated body for inking foreign accords.

Far from helping her, the president’s penchant for contrived photo opportunities showed insincerity and shallow aim of landing on the front pages of newspapers and primetime news broadcasts.

Arroyo’s decision is also an admission of her failure to unite her own political camp much less the groups that helped propel her to power. The Edsa coalition had long been in tatters, most of its members having concluded that the present government is no better than the one they ousted in terms of corruption, politicking and ineffective leadership.

But more than anything else, her administration failed to lift the country from economic misery. The poor majority did not feel any improvement in their lives, not even a sniff of the positive growth rates that Arroyo and her cabinet have boasted to the media. Arroyo’s adamant adherence to globalization continues to bring gloom, from North Luzon’s vegetable growers to Mindanao tuna fishers.

It is all these and more that must have shaped the latest Social Weather Station (SWS) survey that showed Arroyo a dismal fourth among possible presidential candidates. For an incumbent official who has the vast resources of government and the power of the presidency at her command, placing fourth is infinitely humiliating. She must have realized that to seek reelection under such conditions spells political doom. Thus, some wicked minds opined, the much-vaunted Rizal Day sacrifice was not a sacrifice at all. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo saw the signs and decided to cut her losses. They also say that the move was preemptive – to stop her opponents from exploding more political bombs that have gotten dangerously close to her doorstep.

Opportunity for genuine reforms

Arroyo’s decision have had several consequences. One is to encourage the tendency to put all the blame on politics for the present state of the country, dimming the more basic problems of landlessness, unemployment, lack of basic social services, and even the intensifying U.S. military presence.

For the opposition and the rest of the presidential wannabes, Arroyo’s renunciation of her 2004 plans has made the future look brighter. It has emboldened the opposition, even challenging the president to refrain from supporting a candidate. Lakas-NUCD on the other hand lost its standard bearer, creating a vacuum and opening the door for political jockeying.

While many are skeptical over Arroyo’s political sacrifice, it nevertheless created a positive image for the administration that could give the president the boost she desires.  Being free from electoral retribution also gives her the opportunity to implement policies that would otherwise be difficult to implement and start the country to genuine economic growth. She need not kowtow anymore to big business to get their campaign contributions. Thus, Arroyo could now review the onerous deals the government has entered into, take a good look at the rates and services of basic utilities such as water and electricity, stop the military from killing and violating the rights of hapless civilians, seriously attend to the peace talks, give the workers their much-needed wage increase, review the MLSA, implement an honest-to-goodness mass housing program, etc. The list of what she could and should do is endless.

The big question is, can or will she do all or any of these or will the bombshell she exploded turn out to be a cheap kwitis?

She is in fact already reaping the fruits of her decision, with admiring media and colleagues deciding to give her the benefit of the doubt. Political martyrdom created for her an underdog image (from survey loser to selfless martyr, said one paper) that has made even the militant groups which have been calling for her ouster temper their criticisms against GMA – in the next few days at least.

One thing the president’s stunner accomplished was take away the public’s attention from the beyond-belief victory of Ara Mina over Vilma Santos in the recent Metro Manila Film Festival. But which of the two issues would stay longer in the mind of Mang Juan and Aling Maria is debatable.  Bulatlat.com

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