ANALYSIS
Beyond Arroyo and
Beyond Retaking Power
It takes convincing the electorate who have long been sickened by
elections that mean nothing to their lives and future that this one is
more than just a choice between Estrada's candidates and Arroyo's
candidates and is, therefore, different. The opposition should be able
to show that this is beyond ousting Arroyo and beyond retaking power.
By the Policy Study, Publication
and Advocacy (PSPA) Program
Center for People Empowerment in Governance (CenPEG)
Posted by Bulatlat
With the formation of the senatorial
slates of both the traditional opposition and the Arroyo administration,
the coming elections are certain to be a power struggle among factions
of the ruling elite. It will be a power dynamics defined by the
administration's "Team Unity" ticket that is banking on the favorable
outcome of the mid-term congressional elections to allow the incumbent
President to stay in office and pursue constitutional change thereafter,
and the Estrada-inspired United Opposition (UNO) ticket that is intent
on removing her from Malacañang.
Administration spokespersons have
accused UNO, now renamed "Genuine Opposition" or GO, of lacking any
campaign platform except the ouster of President Gloria M. Arroyo.
Arroyo had previously faced two impeachment complaints in Congress for
election fraud, betrayal of public trust, human rights abuses, and other
constitutional violations. But the GO is determined to make the 2004
election fraud an issue since, according to reelectionist Sen. Panilo
Lacson, "it involves integrity and accountability of public officials."
"If you are elected, you should be
accountable for your actions. You just can't get away with cheating in
an election or pilfering millions of pesos in public funds in the
fertilizer scam," Lacson said in a newspaper report last week. "We were
hoodwinked before - we will not be hoodwinked again."
Topnotch candidates
GO's ticket appears formidable as it
includes candidates who have topped previous senatorial races. These
are: former Sen. Loren Legarda (Nationalist People's Coalition or NPC)
who ran for vice president in 2004; Lacson (Independent) who was also a
presidential candidate in 2004; Senate President Manuel Villar (Nacionalista
Party, guest candidate), former House Speaker and 2010 presidential
aspirant; and Francis Pangilinan (Liberal Party / "Drilon wing," guest
candidate), Senate Majority Floor Leader.
The rest are Rep. Francis Escudero (NPC,
Bicol); Alan Peter Cayetano (NP, Rizal); Benigno Aquino III (LP / "Drilon
wing"); Anna Dominique Coseteng (NPC, former senator); John Henry Osmeña
(NPC, Cebu), former senator; Aquilino Pimentel III (Partido
Demokratikong Pilipino – Lakas ng Bayan); Sonia Roco (Aksyon Demokratiko,
Bicol); and cashiered Navy Lt. SG Antonio Trillanes (Independent).
Escudero, Cayetano and Aquino III,
all belonging to political dynasties, have been topping in recent
popularity surveys. Osmeña, who comes from a political dynasty in
central Visayas that spans several generations, and Pimentel III, son of
incumbent Sen. Aquilino Pimentel, Jr., are from vote-rich Cebu and
Mindanao, respectively.
Roco is the widow of the late Sen.
Raul Roco, who also ran for president in 2004. Trillanes was the leader
of Magdalo that pulled the 2003 Oakwood mutiny and was linked to ousted
President Joseph Estrada. He is expected to represent idealistic
sections of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
In varying degrees, Escudero,
Cayetano, Aquino III, Villar, Lacson, Roco and Trillanes had led or
supported calls for the removal of Arroyo from the presidency. They also
figured in the opposition to constitutional change which is widely
believed to be a ploy of the President together with Lakas-CMD leaders
to perpetuate the ruling coalition in power and preempt another
impeachment. Trillanes, who has been detained since late 2003, took the
extreme measure of toppling Arroyo through an attempted coup, so claims
Malacañang.
Referendum
It is the nature of the country's
traditional elections that power struggle and political convenience can
galvanize disparate forces: Villar, Pangilinan, Legarda, the families of
Roco and Pimentel III and, in a defining moment, Lacson, as director
general of the PNP, were key figures in the 2001 ouster of Estrada that
was initiated by the militant Left and paved the way for the ascendance
of Gloria Arroyo into the presidency. Escudero has long been identified
with Estrada, was in the frontline against his impeachment and became an
initiator of the two impeachments against the incumbent President.
Escudero is from the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of political
kingpin Eduardo Cojuangco, Jr. which is split in this election, with one
faction siding with Mrs. Arroyo.
Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, UNO
president, who took pains in cobbling together the GO ticket at times in
close talks with Estrada – who is in detention since mid-2001 - has
minced no words in saying that the mid-term election is a "referendum"
for Arroyo and that the President's removal is a campaign issue. As
opposition leader, Binay was himself a victim of a Malacañang purge to
remove him as city mayor on graft charges last year.
Conversely, the administration "Team
Unity" clusters pro-Arroyo hardliners, pro-Estrada allies who turned
into the proverbial "political butterflies," local political figures and
TV-movie celebrities. Leyte Gov. Jericho Petilla, a member of a
political dynasty in Eastern Visayas, who was earlier included in the
ticket, begged off at the last minute because, reports said, he was
certain to lose. Movie actor Cesar Montano, who hails from Bohol, took
his place.
In the administration ticket are
proven pro-Arroyo allies: Michael Defensor (LP, "Atienza wing"), former
presidential chief of staff; Rep. Juan Miguel Zubiri (Lakas-CMD,
Bukidnon); Rep. Prospero Pichay, Jr. (Lakas-CMD, Surigao del Sur); Sen.
Edgardo Angara (LDP, Quezon), Estrada's former executive secretary; and
Ilocos Sur Gov. Luis "Chavit" Singson (Lakas-CMD), the whistle-blower
who precipitated Estrada's impeachment.
Sens. Joker Arroyo (Kampi/Independent,
Makati), who headed the prosecution in the Estrada impeachment, and
Ralph Recto (Lakas-CMD/Independent, Batangas) had agonized which ticket
to join but finally decided to cast their lot with the administration
slate. Former Sens. Vicente Sotto III (NPC), a TV personality, and
Tessie Aquino-Oreta (NPC), sister of slain Sen. Benigno Aquino, Jr.,
jumped into the administration ticket after being dropped from the GO
slate. Sotto III and Aquino-Oreta used to be in the inner circle of
Estrada and the late Fernando Poe, Jr, who ran against Gloria Arroyo in
2004.
Zambales Gov. Vicente Magsaysay (Lakas-CMD/Kilusang
Bagong Lipunan) and Jamalul Kiram III (PDSP), heir to the Sultanate of
Sulu, are supposed to represent the LGUs, claimed to be the local
government base of the President. Magsaysay is a cousin of Sen. Ramon
Magsaysay, Jr., son of a former president, while Kiram III's PDSP is the
party of National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzalez, who has led the
campaign of vilification against progressive Party-list groups and other
alleged Left "front organizations" and is blamed partly for the reported
deaths of hundreds of activists.
United in what?
It is difficult to see how the
administration slate will be able to project itself as a united team
given the impression that its formation was made in haste, that it
included "rejects" from the opposition ticket as well as two movie and
TV actors whose selection was based on presumed crowd-drawing assets.
President Arroyo needs to work hard
in order to match and fend off the opposition's strategy to turn the
congressional race into a "referendum" for the chief executive.
Campaigning on a platform of "economic growth," which she and Angara
have so declared, will not win votes simply because there is nothing
they can show to convince the mass electorate.
On the other hand, Binay and the
opposition candidates should be able to give substance to the strategy
of using the election as an issue of presidential accountability.
Reviving the "Hello, Garci" election controversy can be an effective
strategy because of its "issue recall" advantage but it must not be
linked narrowly to what some opposition stalwarts aim of transforming
the election into a choice between Arroyo and Estrada.
Accountability is a legitimate and
principled campaign issue so long as it is interlocked with the mass
electorate's immediate concerns: the abuse of power, gross and
systematic violations of human rights and political repression, the
U.S.-supported war on terror, labor wage, rising unemployment and
poverty, corruption and rising criminality, military discontent, and so
on.
Another common issue which the GO
and its guest candidates – Villar and Pangilinan – can take a stand is
Mrs. Arroyo's plan to abolish the Senate and which will likely be
revived in a constitutional change that she and her allies will pursue
after the mid-term elections.
Even if, however, the opposition
will be able to win sizeable seats in the senatorial poll – as some
political forecasts predict - that will not be enough to ensure the
removal of Arroyo. They should be able win at least the required minimum
number of seats out of the present 212 elective positions in the House
of Representatives to be able to make a go for a third and possibly
successful impeachment against the President.
It takes principled positions to be
able to rise up to the challenge of the electoral process. It takes
convincing the electorate who have long been sickened by elections that
mean nothing to their lives and future that this one is more than just a
choice between Estrada's candidates and Arroyo's candidates and is,
therefore, different. The opposition should be able to show that this is
beyond ousting Arroyo and beyond retaking power. Cenpeg/posted by
Bulatlat
CenPEG is a public policy center set up shortly before the May 2004
elections to help promote people empowerment in governance and
democratic representation of the marginalized poor in an elitist and
patronage-driven electoral and political system. It conducts
research/policy study, education and trainings on governance and people
empowerment. To pursue its programs in research and education-training,
CenPEG taps a wide pool of political analysts, public policy experts and
academic scholars for their expertise and experience in public
governance as well as in grassroots empowerment.
BACK TO
TOP ■
PRINTER-FRIENDLY VERSION ■
COMMENT
© 2007 Bulatlat
■
Alipato Publications
Permission is granted to reprint or redistribute this article, provided
its author/s and Bulatlat are properly credited and notified.