Perspectives for 2007

The international position of the US during 2007 will continue to deteriorate – the coming massive military escalation in Iraq, the large-scale transfer of arms for Israel to threaten or attack Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or Hamas (or all simultaneously) – will not lessen the armed resistance in Iraq. A US-backed Israeli attack on Iran will extend warfare throughout the Gulf States including Saudi Arabia. On December 15, 2006, Bush presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Israeli extremist, Natan Sharansky– advocate for the genocidal ‘transfer’ of all Palestinians from ‘Greater Israel’ – symbolizing the meeting of the minds of US imperial militarism and Israeli brutal colonial expansionism. The total discarding of any new diplomatic initiative (like the recommendations of Baker’s Iraq Study Group), is the result of the combined strength of the powerful pro-Israel Lobby and the Bush-Cheney-Rice White House.

Washington, overextended militarily in the Middle East, will follow its ‘two-track’ policy in Latin America. The White House will support incumbent clients (like Uribe, Calderon and Garcia); the State, Treasury and Commerce Departments will engage in trade agreements with more ‘autonomous’ neo-liberal regimes like Lula, Bachelet, Vazquez and Kirchner), encouraging greater distance from Cuba and Venezuela and closer diplomatic relations with the US. With regard to Bolivia, Washington will continue to pressure Morales to make further concessions to the far-right civic-oligarchic coalition based in Santa Cruz, allowing the local business elite to ‘carry the ball’ for US imperial interests. In Venezuela, the ‘two track policy’ will attempt to deepen the political divisions in the Chavista movement, in order to block new Chavez initiatives toward greater socialization and in order to promote new political configuration of ‘moderate oppositionists’ and liberal Chavistas.

The weakest link in Washington’s projected strategy in Latin America is the re-emergence of socio-political movements, like those which burst forth in the late 1990’s and first years of the new century: The MST in Brazil, the workers, peasant and Indian movements in Bolivia and Ecuador and the mass uprising in Oaxaca and electoral protests in Mexico are in the process of re-grouping, none having suffered a historic defeat. All the major popular movements retain their organizational structures and have recovered their political independence. They will soon be capable of once again engaging in major uprisings and political confrontations with the oligarchies in power or with their shock troops in the streets.

The New Year does not promise ‘more of the same’: it will start with a major US military escalation in the Middle East but it will likely end with a greater military debacle, ensuring deepening political crises and increased economic instability both in the Middle East, the US and Latin America. The weakening of the US political regime will open a window of opportunity for a decisive break with the US Empire, providing that the re-emerging social-political movements can overcome the obstacles posed by the new political elites of ex-leftists and traditional oligarchs. Posted by Bulatlat

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