The Arroyo government is trying to scare the people from pursuing calls for President Arroyo’s resignation or ouster with the specter of a reversal of the gains of economic growth. But with the worsening poverty situation, one wonders whether there really is an improvement in the economy and whether the Filipino people would lose anything in pursuing Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s ouster, except a corrupt and repressive government.

BY BENJIE OLIVEROS
ANALYSIS
Bulatlat
Vol. VIII, No. 6, March 9-15, 2008

Poverty is on the rise, this despite the claims of economic growth by the Arroyo government. The Official Poverty Statistics released by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) revealed that 4.7 million families were poor in 2006, an increase from the 4 million families reported as poor in 2003. Poverty incidence was at 26.9 percent of the total number of families compared to 24.4 percent in 2003. This translates into 27.6 million Filipinos or 32.9 percent of the population being considered as poor in 2006 compared to the 23.8 million poor Filipinos or 30 percent of the population in 2003.

Corollary to this, the NSCB report also showed that the income of 1.9 million families or 12.2 million Filipinos is below the minimum requirement for food expenditure. This is again an increase from 1.7 million families or 10.8 million Filipinos whose income could not provide them with the minimum food requirements in 2003.

This is not surprising as IBON Foundation’s analysis of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey for 2000, 2003, and 2006 revealed that the average family income of all Filipino families decreased by P20, 400 ($452 at an exchange rate of $1=P45.063 in August, 2000) between 2000 and 2006, measured using prices in 2000. The 18.6 percent increase in the nominal income was way below the 37.9 percent increase in prices over the same period. The poorest four-fifths of the population lost an average of 5.3 percent of their real income for the first decile to 12.6 percent for the eight decile or from P1, 300 to P21, 400 ($22.19 to $474.92) of their income in 2006 compared to 2000. The poorest 5.2 million households were in debt at an average of P1,700 ($34 at an exchange rate of $1=P50) per household or a total of P9 billion ($180 million) in 2006.

The decrease in the average family income was sharpest during the period 2000 to 2003, at P15, 000 ($332 at the exchange rate in 2000). But this is not a reflection of an improvement in the employment situation from 2003 to 2006 as there was hardly a dent in the unemployment situation and there was even a steady increase in the rate of underemployment. In fact, IBON concluded that the average unemployment rate of 11.3 percent and underemployment rate of 18.5 percent under the Arroyo administration is the worst in history.

What alleviated the worsening income situation of Filipinos were the significant increases in the dollar remittances of overseas Filipinos, which grew annually by less than one million dollars from 2001 to 2003 to more than a million dollars from 2003 to 2004, and more than two million dollars annually from 2004 to 2006. (It is expected to increase by almost three million dollars in 2007.) The Arroyo government cannot claim credit for this as all they do is to try to sell the cheap labor of Filipinos overseas. It is the OFWs and their families who suffer the trauma of separation and who risk their lives and their money to be able to find gainful employment abroad. And the Arroyo government only assists them when the plight of OFWs in crisis have reached the public’s attention, through the efforts of Migrante International and the media. Furthermore, the increase in OFW remittances is a reflection of the dire state of the employment and underemployment situation in the country, forcing Filipinos to find work overseas.

Still a bleak future

Will the employment and therefore, the income situation of Filipinos improve with the supposed and much-touted growth in the Gross Domestic Product?

Hardly, if gauged by the trends during the last six years. The reported growth in the GDP in 2001 was around 3.1 percent and the unemployment and underemployment rates then were at 11.1 percent and 17.2 percent respectively. By 2003, the reported GDP growth was at 4.1 percent and the unemployment and underemployment rates were at 11.4 percent and 17 percent. In 2006, the reported GDP growth rate was at 5.4 percent but the unemployment and underemployment rates were still at 11 percent and 22.7 percent. With the supposed highest GDP growth rate in years in 2007 at 7.1 percent – which is actually from 5.3 to 6.3 percent using the pre-2004 methodology of measurement that the government used- the unemployment and underemployment rates were still at 10.8 and 20.1 percent respectively, which are conservative estimates considering that the Arroyo government also changed its definition of unemployment in 2005. (This government has the habit of changing its computations to make the situation seem better.)

The lingering sorry state of employment and underemployment does not reflect the reported growths in the GDP. Even with the much bragged about GDP growth in 2007, the jobs created during the year were in the most lowest-paying, temporary, and insecure jobs: 142,000 jobs in household help, 116,000 in transportation, communications, and storage, 111,000 in wholesale and retail trade, 104,000 in real estate, renting, and business activities – which included Business Process Outsourcing such as call centers, and 103,000 in construction.

Cabinet Sec. Ricardo Saludo, reacting to the NSCB poverty incidence report, said that with the “fiscal squeeze over” the Arroyo government is planning to increase its expenditures in social services. But this must be taken with a grain of salt. First, the fiscal crisis is far from over. The national government surplus of P12.6 billion ($292,545,189 at the exchange rate of $1=P43.218 in November, 2007) during the first 11 months of 2007 was mainly due to the proceeds of privatization without which there should have been a P78 billion deficit ($1,804,803,554), approximately 31 percent higher compared to the same period in 2006. According to IBON Foundation, “The P90.6 billion in government assets sold in 2007, or in just one year, was nearly as much as the PhP93.9 billion sold off in the previous 15 years spanning three administrations,” and the government is running out of assets to sell. Added to this, real public spending on education continued to fall in 2006 and at P1, 508 ($30.48 at an exchange rate of $1=P49.467 in December 2006) per Filipino is 21.8 percent down from the 2001 level; health spending has fallen by 25.1 percent over the same period to just P159 ($3.21) per Filipino. Surely, 2007 was no different given the continuous deterioration of the education and health systems in the country. This situation is made worse with the piling up of corruption cases involving scandalously large amounts.

The Arroyo government is trying to scare the people from pursuing calls for President Arroyo’s resignation or ouster with the specter of a reversal of the gains of economic growth. But with the worsening poverty situation, one wonders whether there really is an improvement in the economy and whether the Filipino people would lose anything in pursuing Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s ouster, except a corrupt and repressive government. (Bulatlat.com)

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