Because of this situation plus other more important considerations of building democracy from the shambles of this government, the option of a representative governing council is more workable towards a peaceful transition to a truly representative government. But Arroyo, and her supporters in and out of government are not about to relinquish power for national interests.
President Arroyo needs earthshaking positive impact to draw mass support, isolate the political opposition and sideline the issues currently facing her. That is an extremely difficult act for her to accomplish in time for the State of the Nation Address since there is practically nothing much left for her to offer the people. The government is bankrupt and heavily indebted, it is fighting an insurgency it is not capable of winning, it is unable to stamp out criminality and terrorist bandits, it needs to slap more taxes to the people than give them economic relief and welfare, ad nauseam.
Probably the only thing keeping the administration going is the support of the US, which needs her administration to work in order to continue the US agenda of pursuing the war on terror in Mindanao and ensuring that the country remains an important ally. Thus, despite the government’s bankruptcy, the US has supported its capacity to continue borrowing through the bonds markets abroad and has poured a few billion dollars in the past few years in military and economic aid.
Military option
But President Arroyo’s main front of strength is the military. While talk of coup plots is rife and the military is generally vulnerable to political influence from the opposition, the Arroyo regime counts among its key pillars the dominant leadership in the military and police forces. Thus it will not be easy for those who seek her removal to weaken her control of the most important element of the state and her political power.
When we projected at the start of the year that Arroyo will take the path of authoritarianism, this was based on the emerging trends in 2004 such as the growth of opposition, possibilities for unification of the political and popular opposition, intensification of the economic crisis and the deterioration of the political crisis which would make it untenable for the administration to operate in the old way. This is not a matter of choice but of necessity, in that the growth of the insurgency and Arroyo’s dogged belief in her presidency as legitimate arbiter and defender of the status quo, confidence in US support, commitment to the US agenda and failure to find civil alternatives in the face of intensifying opposition will make an authoritarian version of her administration the necessary alternative.
However, Arroyo’s main political support comes from political parties and groups that belong to the anti-Marcos, anti-dictatorship camps. While this may seem to pose a quandary for Arroyo and prevent her from taking an openly militaristic authoritarian regime, Arroyo’s repressive authoritarian option will use the anticommunism as its facade as these parties also belong to the rabidly anticommunist clerico-fascist groups, or are allied with them.
As the first months of the year have shown, the military authorities of the Arroyo administration are not reticent in intensifying the political crisis by anticommunist witch-hunting and widespread assassination of leaders of people’s movements and outspoken intellectuals. This would indicate the growing boldness of the military leadership and confidence in their dominant position in the Arroyo regime.
National consensus for change and unity
Many Filipinos bewail the current political crisis, which is just the culmination of seven years of continuous political crisis under the Estrada and Arroyo presidencies. It would seem that people are tired of instability, people power and crisis.
On the other hand, Filipinos have experienced more than thirteen years of dictatorship and two people power uprisings against unpopular governments. They now know that playing musical chairs in Malacañang does not really make a difference and only exacerbates the problems of instability and economic crisis. People now talk of genuine change, policies that are genuinely responsive of the people’s welfare and interests. The next task is to build national unity to realize that change. IBON Features / Posted by Bulatlat
IBON Features is a media service of IBON Foundation, an independent economic policy and research institution. When reprinting this feature, please credit IBON Features and give the byline when applicable.
Posted by Bulatlat
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