As 2010 Polls Draw Near, Unprecedented Fraud, Violence, ‘No-El’ Loom

Underneath the never-ending and intensifying political conflict is the permanent and worsening crisis of the economy. The raging economic crisis feeds the growing dispute among the various factions of the political elite contending for control of political power and monopoly of economic spoils – a conflict that has become more pronounced and increasingly vicious under the nine-year old Arroyo administration.

By ARNOLD PADILLA
Analysis
Bulatlat.com

MANILA — With the 2010 national elections just less than six months away, recent political developments paint not only a scenario of massive fraud and violence unprecedented in the country’s electoral history but more and more even a scenario of no elections (No-El).

In the middle of all these is President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo who, despite being in the last remaining months of her troubled and despised presidency, will continue to be a key political player. Last week, she made two unprecedented moves – first declaring her candidacy for congresswoman in Pampanga and then imposing martial law in Maguindanao – that changed the complexion of the upcoming national polls.

Economic Decay and Power Struggle

The upcoming elections will be held amid the worst crisis faced by the global capitalist system since the Great Depression of the 1930s. While the impact of this crisis on the Philippine economy has been many times downplayed by the Arroyo administration, the global crunch has without a doubt pushed the country into greater backwardness and unparalleled poverty and job scarcity.

Third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew by a dismal 0.8 percent which was much lower than what the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) hoped for. With factory production severely undermined by global recession, export-oriented manufacturing contracted for three consecutive quarters with the latest report showing a decline of 7.6 percent. Per capita GDP or the total value of domestic production as divided by the national population fell by 1.2 percent that indicates less available wealth for an increasing number of Filipinos. This year, the number of poor Filipinos is expected to grow to 32.3 million or almost 12 million higher than the estimated number of poor in 2000. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic impact of tropical storm Ondoy and typhoon Pepeng is expected to further reduce GDP growth in the fourth quarter by 0.6 percentage points.

Modest GDP growth prior to the global recession and major natural disasters did not translate to poverty reduction. On the contrary, growth in the Philippine context has meant greater poverty with every one percent of growth accompanied by about 0.3 percent increase in the number of poor Filipinos. This means that whatever economic growth achieved has been at the expense of decent wages, sufficient social services, and reliable social security for the poor and ordinary income earners.

With the accelerating economic decay that the country faces, brought about by the permanent crisis of the pre-industrial economy and made worse by the still raging global crunch, continued implementation of neoliberal globalization policies, and impact of the climate crisis, factional conflicts among the various blocs of the local political elite to control state power and protect their wealth and further enrich themselves could only but intensify.

And amid dwindling wealth available in the domestic economy as the global crisis worsens, the Arroyo clique and its cronies have expectedly become more aggressive in consolidating and expanding their control of whatever wealth is left in and produced by the domestic economy. An indispensable component of such control is prolonged and tighter control over government that they hope to accomplish at all costs. At the same time, continued control of political power assures Mrs. Arroyo and her allies of protection from prosecution for the many abuses committed by their regime against the people such as wholesale electoral fraud; human rights atrocities including extrajudicial killings; massive corruption and plunder; total sellout of the national patrimony and sovereignty, etc.

Raising the Stakes

By joining the 2010 elections as a congressional candidate in Pampanga, Mrs. Arroyo single-handedly raised the stakes in the upcoming polls. As a consequence, she further stoked fears that the elections will be fraudulent despite the automation and certainly would be violent and bloody. The Nov. 23 Ampatuan Massacre which was triggered by the local electoral conflict in Maguindanao is just the first in the many cases of expected election-related violence in the coming months.